Morocco’s Mediation in Bazoum’s Crisis in Niger: Will Moroccan Intelligence Efforts Succeed?

ALDAR/

More than 18 months have passed since Niger’s ousted president, Mohamed Bazoum, was detained by the country’s military council. Bazoum remains confined in his former presidential residence along with his wife, while his son, Salim, was transferred to the United Arab Emirates thanks to an earlier mediation led by the Republic of Togo.

Despite the time elapsed, previous diplomatic efforts have yielded no significant results for Bazoum’s release, particularly after the military council severed ties with ECOWAS in January 2024. This diplomatic stalemate has been accompanied by increasing pressure on Bazoum, whose presidential immunity was lifted by the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, international support for his cause has significantly waned, leaving him in a more complex situation than ever before.

In this context, Morocco’s involvement in the crisis has raised questions about the motives behind its intervention. Sources close to the matter indicate that King Mohammed VI has initiated Moroccan mediation on humanitarian grounds, expressing concern over Bazoum’s prolonged detention under unsuitable conditions. The friendly relations that previously existed between Bazoum and Morocco, as well as his political stances sympathetic to Rabat, appear to have encouraged this move.

However, the challenges remain substantial. Informed sources report that the head of Moroccan intelligence has conducted visits to Niamey to discuss with military council leaders the conditions for Bazoum’s release. These initial meetings were followed by discussions between Moroccan envoys and the head of the military council, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, in an attempt to reach an agreement.

The primary obstacle facing Moroccan mediation, however, lies in the intransigence of the military council. While it had shown some flexibility during earlier mediations by agreeing to release Bazoum on the condition that he be exiled to a country outside ECOWAS, Morocco’s emergence as a new mediator has reportedly led Rabat to offer guarantees to host Bazoum on its soil, with a commitment to prevent any political activities that could harm Niger.

This Moroccan initiative coincides with efforts to strengthen bilateral relations with Niger, including the provision of humanitarian aid such as large-capacity power generators. The mediation also reflects Rabat’s aim to enhance its regional role amid a competitive rivalry with Algeria, which, despite successive failures, continues to seek greater influence in the Sahel region.

Morocco’s diplomatic track record boosts the likelihood of success for this mediation, as the kingdom has previously achieved breakthroughs in similar cases, such as the release of French hostages in Burkina Faso. However, the French factor remains a significant challenge. France’s strained relations with the military council make any French involvement in the mediation controversial and could hinder Morocco’s efforts.

With declining international support for Mohamed Bazoum and diminishing options, his acceptance of exile in Morocco might be the only viable way to avoid further complications. However, the success of this scenario hinges on Morocco’s ability to overcome the conditions imposed by the military council and mitigate any potential fallout from French involvement in the matter.

As Moroccan intelligence seeks to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough to end Bazoum’s crisis, the key question remains: Can Morocco leverage its political capital and regional role to bring about a resolution to the plight of Niger’s former president? Or will the political and security complexities prolong the crisis? Only time will provide the answer.