International Consensus Settles the Dispute: Autonomy Consolidates Moroccan Sovereignty While Algeria and the Polisario Face Growing Isolation

ALDAR/ Iman Alaoui

The decisive international shift on the issue of the Moroccan Sahara does not merely solidify the autonomy plan as the sole framework for resolution; it also has profound repercussions on the calculations of Algeria and the Polisario Front, which for decades relied on the referendum card and perpetuating the manufactured conflict as a tool for regional bargaining. The removal of this option from the UN agenda practically marks the end of the separatist project in both its political and legal dimensions, placing Algeria in an increasingly diplomatic isolation, especially given the noticeable decline in enthusiasm among its traditional allies. Even some voices within the African Union have become more inclined to adopt a pragmatic approach toward Morocco’s proposal.

Algeria, which has spent billions of dollars supporting the Polisario Front politically, militarily, and through media campaigns, now finds itself in a difficult defensive position, as its position no longer resonates with major powers. Moreover, its continued funding of separatism is viewed by the international community as an obstacle to regional stability, at a time when the region requires security and economic cooperation to confront challenges such as terrorism, irregular migration, and climate change. This explains the mounting pressure on the Algerian regime to abandon its losing gamble and instead focus on building developmental partnerships with Morocco and neighboring countries.

The Polisario Front, meanwhile, finds itself in a more precarious situation than ever. Internally, anger is growing among those confined in the Tindouf camps due to tragic social conditions and the absence of any realistic political horizon. Externally, its influence has declined after its rhetoric was neutralized at the United Nations and the referendum option was removed from serious discussions. This erosion has forced the Front to rely on limited media or military maneuvers to assert its presence—tactics that no longer convince anyone given the significant shift in international positions.

Thus, the international shift represents not merely a diplomatic gain for Morocco but simultaneously a major strategic loss for Algeria and the Polisario Front. It strips them of the most significant leverage they have long used and pushes them toward a bitter choice: either engage in the political process under the framework of autonomy or face increasing international isolation, with all the accompanying political and domestic economic repercussions.